Market Update
Wednesday 25 March 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Wednesday 25 March 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 254.9c/L, up 17.0c on last week. Diesel averages 298.5c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 274.0c/L. Wholesale import costs eased 4.1% over the past week to an estimated 162.3c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$98.05
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6947
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
162.3
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 8.7% over the past week to US$98.05 per barrel, while the Australian dollar weakened 2.3% against the US dollar, lifting the local cost of imported fuel. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Retail margins elevated — correction likely Petrol stations are earning 61c/L more than their historical average margin. This level of profitability tends to attract competition and compress prices over time — even if crude stays flat. Prices may ease in the coming weeks.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Wednesday 25 March 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Wednesday 25 March 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toNo clear high or low right now — prices are in the middle of the cycle. The next price dip is around 13 days away. Fill up when you need to.
Brisbane
Cycle position unclearFill up nowPrices are at or near their cycle low — fill up today.
Looking ahead
Across our coverage, the cycle call leans toward fill-up now in Brisbane — the model's read is that prices are at or near the local trough and likely to climb in coming days.
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.