Weekly Outlook
Australian Petrol Price
Market Pulse
Monday 9 November 2026 · Unleaded 91 and diesel · Based on oil markets, AUD/USD, and price cycle analysis
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 9 November 2026
This week at a glance
As of Monday 9 November 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 230.0c/L, down 8.1c on last week. Diesel averages 274.9c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 226.9c/L. Wholesale import costs eased 3.8% over the past week to an estimated 161.4c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$96.52
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6903
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises imported fuel costs
Import Parity
161.4
cents per litre
Estimated cost of imported fuel, incl. excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 7.5% over the past week to US$96.52 per barrel, while the Australian dollar weakened 1.4% against the US dollar, lifting the local cost of imported fuel. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Prices likely to ease over the next 4 weeks Crude oil has fallen 12% and the australian dollar has weakened — the cost of importing petrol is down 6%. That typically flows through to the pump within 3–4 weeks. Don't over-fill right now — cheaper prices are likely coming.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital today, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 225.8c | 207.5c |
| Melbourne | 229.1c | 194.3c |
| Brisbane | 227.8c | 211.4c |
| Adelaide | 217.9c | 206.5c |
| Perth | 214.9c | 197.9c |
| Canberra | 239.3c | 222.9c |
| Hobart | 241.4c | 229.9c |
| Darwin | 244.1c | 233.5c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sits in its local discounting cycle right now, and what our model is telling drivers to do this week.
Shared signal — Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin
Prices are drifting steadily down with no sign of a jump. A cheaper day is likely within the next day or two — worth holding off if your tank allows.
Sydney
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeMelbourne
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeBrisbane
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePerth
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeWorth waiting. The AUD has weakened 1.8%. Import costs have dropped 6% in 2 weeks. The upcoming cycle low (in ~2 days) should be noticeably cheaper as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeCanberra
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeHobart
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeDarwin
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeLooking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Perth (around 2 days away from the next trough).
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
Common questions
When will petrol prices go down in Australia?
There are two separate answers, and they work on different clocks. Week to week, the biggest driver is your city's own discount cycle: prices climb quickly after a trough, then grind down over days or weeks until the next hike. Over months, the floor and ceiling of that cycle are set by the international refined petrol price (Singapore MOGAS 95) and the AUD/USD exchange rate, because Australia imports most of its refined fuel. So the next cheap day is a cycle question, and whether that cheap day is cheaper than last month's is a wholesale question. The city outlook above tracks the second; your city page tracks the first.
Will petrol prices go up or down this week?
It depends on where your city sits in its cycle right now, which is why there is no single national answer in any given week. Capitals run cycles of different lengths and can be at opposite ends of them on the same day, and cycle timing has been less regular since early 2026. The per-city outlook above gives the current directional call for each capital; the city pages carry the day-level fill-up recommendation.
How far ahead can petrol prices be forecast?
Roughly a few weeks, and confidence falls off sharply with distance. The wholesale inputs are genuinely forward-looking — Singapore MOGAS moves through to Australian pump prices over about one to three weeks, so a wholesale move today is largely knowable in advance. Cycle timing is the harder half: the depth of the next trough is more predictable than its exact date. PetrolPulse publishes its full tested record, including the market conditions where the model is weakest, rather than a single headline accuracy number.
Why do petrol prices keep changing?
Four things stack, in rough order of size. The international refined petrol price, set in Asian wholesale markets rather than in Australia. The AUD/USD exchange rate, because that fuel is bought in US dollars. Federal fuel excise plus GST, which is fixed between indexation dates. And the retailer's own margin, which is what produces the sawtooth discount cycle you see week to week. Only the last two are set in Australia, and the retail margin is the smallest share of what you pay — but it is the part that moves fastest.
Past updates
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate. These are combined into an import parity estimate (crude converted to Australian cents per litre, plus a fixed refining and shipping margin, excise and GST) to estimate the current wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether each city is trending up or down, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.