Weekly Outlook
Australian Petrol Price
Market Pulse
Saturday 8 August 2026 · Unleaded 91 and diesel · Based on oil markets, AUD/USD, and price cycle analysis
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 8 August 2026
This week at a glance
Wholesale import costs eased 5.5% over the past week to an estimated 144.9c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$81.98
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7072
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises imported fuel costs
Import Parity
144.9
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 9.0% over the past week to US$81.98 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.7% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Prices likely to ease over the next 4 weeks Crude oil has fallen 15% and the australian dollar has strengthened — the cost of importing petrol is down 10%. That typically flows through to the pump within 3–4 weeks. Don't over-fill right now — cheaper prices are likely coming.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sits in its local discounting cycle right now, and what our model is telling drivers to do this week.
Shared signal — Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Darwin
A reasonable day to fill up if you need fuel. Import costs have dropped 8% in 2 weeks, so pump prices should ease before long.
Shared signal — Perth, Adelaide, Hobart
Import costs have dropped 8% in 2 weeks. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill up nowMelbourne
Cycle position unclearFill up nowBrisbane
Cycle position unclearFill up nowFri–Sat is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Brisbane (up to 2.3¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up. Import costs have dropped 8% in 2 weeks, so pump prices should ease before long.
Perth
Cycle position unclearYou have timeAdelaide
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toCanberra
Cycle position unclearFill up nowHobart
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toDarwin
Cycle position unclearFill up nowLooking ahead
Across our coverage, the cycle call leans toward fill-up now in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin — the model's read is that prices are at or near the local trough and likely to climb in coming days.
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
Past updates
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate. These are combined using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the current wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether each city is trending up or down, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.