Weekly Outlook
Australian Petrol Price
Market Pulse
Sunday 10 May 2026 · Unleaded 91 · Based on oil markets, AUD/USD, and price cycle analysis
This week's market signals
Brent Crude
US$101.29
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7250
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises imported fuel costs
Import Parity
161.3
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
4-week national outlook
Prices remain elevated — global supply costs are higher than usual
Petrol import costs are currently around 22% above where they were six weeks ago, driven by global supply disruptions. While costs have stabilised in the short term, the price floor has risen — expect to pay more than historical averages for the foreseeable future. Short-term cycle swings still apply, but each peak and trough will be higher than what was normal before the disruption.
Past updates
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate. These are combined using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the current wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
When the import parity estimate moves significantly - up or down - relative to current retail prices and the 60-day average retail margin, the forecast direction and confidence level for each city are updated automatically.
This is different from how other Australian fuel apps forecast prices. They extrapolate the local price cycle forward based on historical pattern recognition. PetrolPulse overlays forward-looking market signals on top of cycle analysis, so you get earlier warning of unusual price movements.