Weekly Outlook
Australian Petrol Price
Market Pulse
Monday 17 August 2026 · Unleaded 91 and diesel · Based on oil markets, AUD/USD, and price cycle analysis
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 17 August 2026
This week at a glance
Wholesale import costs held around 151.0c/L, suggesting little fresh pressure on pump prices from the global side.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$88.52
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7092
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises imported fuel costs
Import Parity
151.0
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude climbed 1.0% over the past week to US$88.52 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.5% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Retail margins elevated — correction likely Petrol stations are earning 18c/L more than their historical average margin. This level of profitability tends to attract competition and compress prices over time — even if crude stays flat. Prices may ease in the coming weeks.
Import parity hasn't moved much this week, so any pump price changes you see at the bowser will be driven mainly by the local discounting cycle rather than the global signal.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sits in its local discounting cycle right now, and what our model is telling drivers to do this week.
Shared signal — Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin
Prices are drifting steadily down with no sign of a jump. A cheaper day is likely within the next day or two — worth holding off if your tank allows.
Sydney
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeMelbourne
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeBrisbane
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePerth
Near trough — cycle lowYou have timePrices here follow a strong weekly pattern — Tuesday is usually cheapest, about 9¢/L below the week's peak. Worth waiting ~1 day for the weekly low.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeCanberra
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeHobart
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeDarwin
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeLooking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Perth (around 1 days away from the next trough).
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
Past updates
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate. These are combined using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the current wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether each city is trending up or down, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.