Guide
How PetrolPulse forecasts
petrol prices
Three signals. One clear recommendation. Here's how it works.
Written and reviewed by Mark Schreuder, founder of PetrolPulse · First published 23 March 2026 · Last updated 24 July 2026
Three signals, combined
1. The local price cycle
Every Australian capital city has a characteristic price cycle — a recurring boom-bust pattern driven by retail competition. On ACCC figures the 2025 averages were about five weeks in Sydney, six in Melbourne, six and a half in Brisbane and two and a half in Adelaide — and the ACCC reports regular cycles have mostly not occurred in those four cities since late February 2026, which is precisely the condition the model has to read rather than assume. Perth is the standout: WA's FuelWatch scheme produces a strict weekly cycle, the most predictable in the country. PetrolPulse tracks daily average prices going back 90 days per city to identify where in the cycle you currently are: rising, at peak, falling, or approaching trough.
2. Global oil market direction
We fetch the daily Brent crude spot price and the Singapore MOGAS 95 price — the direct benchmark for Australian imported fuel. When either of these has moved materially over the past 14 days, that signal is incorporated into the forecast. A sustained rise in Brent typically translates to higher retail prices in Australia within 2-3 weeks. A sustained fall can push the cycle trough lower than historical averages.
3. The AUD/USD exchange rate
Australia imports refined fuel priced in US dollars. A weakening Australian dollar raises the AUD cost of every barrel even if USD prices haven't moved. We track the 14-day trend in AUD/USD alongside the oil price trend. If the AUD has weakened and oil prices have risen simultaneously, the forecast factors in a larger-than-usual price increase at the pump.
How the signals combine
The three signals are combined to produce a scenario classification. There are six possible scenarios:
Higher
Oil prices and/or a weak AUD are pushing import costs up materially. Prices at the pump are likely to be higher over the next 4 weeks than the recent average.
Relief
Oil prices have fallen and/or the AUD has strengthened. Import costs are lower and the next cycle trough may be meaningfully cheaper than recent troughs.
Stable
Market signals are flat. The cycle will continue its normal rhythm without unusual macro influence.
Mixed
Oil prices and the AUD are moving in offsetting directions. The net import cost change is small, but uncertainty is elevated.
Margin squeeze
Import costs have risen sharply but retail prices haven't yet adjusted fully. Retailers are running compressed margins. A price rise is likely soon.
Margin bloat
Import costs have fallen but retail prices remain elevated. Retailers are earning above-average margins. Competitive pressure may push prices down faster than the cycle alone would suggest.
What PetrolPulse doesn't claim
Petrol price forecasting is genuinely hard. Retail prices are influenced by dozens of factors including individual retailer strategy, local competition, unexpected global events, and government policy changes. PetrolPulse provides directional guidance based on the signals available — not a precise price prediction. Every recommendation includes a confidence level, and when markets are volatile we'll tell you that uncertainty is high rather than projecting false precision. The goal is to give you an information edge, not a guarantee. We test the model against real past prices every week and publish the full accuracy record, including where it's weak.
Common questions
How does PetrolPulse forecast petrol prices?
It combines three signals: each city's retail price cycle (tracked from 90 days of daily average prices), the direction of global oil markets (Brent crude and Singapore MOGAS 95, the benchmark for Australian imports), and the AUD/USD exchange rate that sets what those imports cost in Australian dollars. The cycle says where local prices sit; the oil and currency signals say whether the next low will be higher or lower than the last.
Can petrol prices actually be predicted?
Direction can be forecast more reliably than an exact price. Retail prices are pushed around by individual retailer strategy, local competition and one-off events, so PetrolPulse gives a directional call — cheaper or dearer, fill now or wait — with a confidence level, rather than a precise cent figure. When markets are volatile it says uncertainty is high instead of projecting false precision.
What makes PetrolPulse different from other fuel price apps?
Most apps read the retail cycle alone. PetrolPulse adds the macro layer — oil-market direction and the AUD/USD rate — so it can tell you whether this month's cycle trough will land higher or lower than last month's, which a cycle-only tool cannot. It also publishes its method and its limits in full rather than presenting the forecast as a black box.
How far ahead does the forecast look?
The macro outlook covers roughly the next four weeks — long enough to capture how an oil or currency move flows through to the pump, which typically takes one to three weeks. The day-to-day fill-up recommendation is shorter range, keyed to where your city sits in its current cycle right now.