Market Update
Monday 2 November 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 2 November 2026
What moved this week
As of Monday 2 November 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 238.2c/L, roughly steady on last week. Diesel averages 280.8c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 252.5c/L. Wholesale import costs eased 3.5% over the past week to an estimated 167.8c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$104.38
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7002
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
167.8
cents per litre
Estimated cost of imported fuel, incl. excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 5.7% over the past week to US$104.38 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.3% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices remain elevated — global supply costs are higher than usual Petrol import costs are currently around 16% above where they were six weeks ago, driven by global supply disruptions. While costs have stabilised in the short term, the price floor has risen — expect to pay more than historical averages for the foreseeable future. Short-term cycle swings still apply, but each peak and trough will be higher than what was normal before the disruption.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Monday 2 November 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 236.3c | 216.5c |
| Melbourne | 237.0c | 217.5c |
| Brisbane | 237.4c | 218.5c |
| Adelaide | 228.0c | 209.5c |
| Perth | 226.8c | 214.7c |
| Canberra | 245.0c | 229.9c |
| Hobart | 247.9c | 233.9c |
| Darwin | 246.9c | 235.5c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Monday 2 November 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Near trough — cycle lowFill when you need toPrices are trending down. Fill up when you need to, and try to top up again if they keep falling. Global supply costs are currently 16% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Melbourne
Near trough — cycle lowFill up nowA reasonable day to fill up if you need fuel. Global supply costs are currently 16% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Brisbane
Cycle position unclearFill up nowTuesday is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Brisbane (up to 2.1¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up. Global supply costs are currently 16% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Perth
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowToday (Tuesday) is usually the cheapest day of the week here, and prices typically jump back up within a day or two — the weekly swing is about 12¢/L. Fill up today. Global supply costs are currently 16% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePrices are drifting steadily down with no sign of a jump. A cheaper day is likely within the next day or two — worth holding off if your tank allows.
Canberra
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill when you need toNo clear direction right now. Fill up when you need to. Global supply costs are currently 16% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Hobart
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toThe cycle is overdue for a low point. The last low was 32 days ago. Fill up when you need to. Prices have started to ease — the low may arrive soon. Global supply costs are currently 16% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Darwin
Near trough — cycle lowFill when you need toPrices are still easing — the broader trend is down. Fill up when you need to. Global supply costs are currently 16% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Looking ahead
Canberra is in the rising leg of the local price cycle, so expect bowser prices to climb before they fall again; Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
Across our coverage, the cycle call leans toward fill-up now in Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth — the model's read is that prices are at or near the local trough and likely to climb in coming days.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them into an import parity estimate (crude converted to Australian cents per litre, plus a fixed refining and shipping margin, excise and GST) to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.