Market Update
Monday 26 October 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 26 October 2026
What moved this week
As of Monday 26 October 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 237.9c/L, down 3.7c on last week. Diesel averages 279.9c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 246.2c/L. Wholesale import costs held around 173.8c/L, suggesting little fresh pressure on pump prices from the global side.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$110.71
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7021
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
173.8
cents per litre
Estimated cost of imported fuel, incl. excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude climbed 1.3% over the past week to US$110.71 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.6% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices remain elevated — global supply costs are higher than usual Petrol import costs are currently around 16% above where they were six weeks ago, driven by global supply disruptions. While costs have stabilised in the short term, the price floor has risen — expect to pay more than historical averages for the foreseeable future. Short-term cycle swings still apply, but each peak and trough will be higher than what was normal before the disruption.
Import parity hasn't moved much this week, so any pump price changes you see at the bowser will be driven mainly by the local discounting cycle rather than the global signal.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Monday 26 October 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 236.3c | 218.7c |
| Melbourne | 235.1c | 219.2c |
| Brisbane | 236.0c | 220.9c |
| Adelaide | 229.7c | 205.5c |
| Perth | 227.0c | 212.7c |
| Canberra | 243.8c | 232.9c |
| Hobart | 248.3c | 237.9c |
| Darwin | 246.8c | 235.5c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Monday 26 October 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeNo sharp moves expected in the next few days — if your tank allows, there's no rush to fill up today. Global supply costs are currently 16% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Melbourne
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toNo clear timing signal right now. Fill up when you need to.
Brisbane
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeWednesday is historically the cheapest day to fill up in Brisbane. That's 1 day away. If your tank allows, waiting could save up to 3.2¢/L. Global supply costs are currently 16% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Perth
Near trough — cycle lowFill up nowToday (Tuesday) is usually the cheapest day of the week here, and prices typically jump back up within a day or two — the weekly swing is about 12¢/L. Fill up today. Global supply costs are currently 16% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toNo clear timing signal right now. Fill up when you need to.
Canberra
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toPrices are easing, but there's no sharp drop to wait for in the next few days. Fill up when you need to.
Hobart
Cycle position unclearYou have timeA price low is expected in about 2 days — worth holding off if your tank allows. Global supply costs are currently 16% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Darwin
Cycle position unclearYou have timeNo sharp moves expected in the next few days — if your tank allows, there's no rush to fill up today. Global supply costs are currently 16% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Looking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Hobart (around 2 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Perth are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them into an import parity estimate (crude converted to Australian cents per litre, plus a fixed refining and shipping margin, excise and GST) to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.