Market Update
Wednesday 21 October 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 21 October 2026
What moved this week
As of Wednesday 21 October 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 240.5c/L, down 4.1c on last week. Diesel averages 279.9c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 247.2c/L. Wholesale import costs lifted 1.5% over the past week to an estimated 172.4c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$109.53
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7034
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
172.4
cents per litre
Estimated cost of imported fuel, incl. excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude climbed 3.3% over the past week to US$109.53 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.9% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices likely to stay in a similar range Crude oil and the Australian dollar have both been relatively stable over the past two weeks — import costs haven't changed much. Prices will still cycle up and down short-term. Use the 7-day recommendation above for timing your fill-ups.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale increases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Wednesday 21 October 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 238.6c | 222.2c |
| Melbourne | 236.7c | 224.4c |
| Brisbane | 237.7c | 223.5c |
| Adelaide | 233.4c | 216.5c |
| Perth | 235.5c | 217.9c |
| Canberra | 244.6c | 232.9c |
| Hobart | 249.2c | 233.9c |
| Darwin | 248.4c | 235.5c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Wednesday 21 October 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Shared signal — Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Hobart
Prices are drifting steadily down with no sign of a jump. A cheaper day is likely within the next day or two — worth holding off if your tank allows.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearYou have timeMelbourne
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeBrisbane
Cycle position unclearYou have timeMon, Fri, Sun is historically the cheapest day to fill up in Brisbane. That's 1 day away. If your tank allows, waiting could save up to 2.0¢/L. Global supply costs are currently 13% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Perth
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePrices here follow a strong weekly pattern — Tuesday is usually cheapest, about 12¢/L below the week's peak. Worth waiting ~5 days for the weekly low. Global supply costs are currently 13% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeCanberra
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill when you need toNo clear direction right now. Fill up when you need to. Global supply costs are currently 13% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Hobart
Cycle position unclearYou have timeDarwin
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill when you need toNo clear direction right now. Fill up when you need to. Global supply costs are currently 13% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Looking ahead
Canberra, Darwin are in the rising leg of the local price cycle, so expect bowser prices to climb before they fall again; Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Perth (around 5 days away from the next trough).
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them into an import parity estimate (crude converted to Australian cents per litre, plus a fixed refining and shipping margin, excise and GST) to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.