Market Update
Monday 5 October 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 5 October 2026
What moved this week
As of Monday 5 October 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 238.6c/L, roughly steady on last week. Diesel averages 284.3c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 254.7c/L. Wholesale import costs lifted 1.7% over the past week to an estimated 164.0c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$100.11
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6973
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
164.0
cents per litre
Estimated cost of imported fuel, incl. excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude climbed 2.1% over the past week to US$100.11 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.7% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Retail margins elevated — correction likely Petrol stations are earning 14c/L more than their historical average margin. This level of profitability tends to attract competition and compress prices over time — even if crude stays flat. Prices may ease in the coming weeks.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale increases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Monday 5 October 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 236.8c | 218.9c |
| Melbourne | 235.6c | 199.9c |
| Brisbane | 236.9c | 219.5c |
| Adelaide | 234.0c | 199.9c |
| Perth | 232.6c | 221.5c |
| Canberra | 241.2c | 229.9c |
| Hobart | 246.8c | 226.9c |
| Darwin | 244.5c | 198.0c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Monday 5 October 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Shared signal — Sydney, Canberra, Darwin
No sharp moves expected in the next few days — if your tank allows, there's no rush to fill up today. Global supply costs are currently 13% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Sydney
Near peak — likely to fall soonYou have timeMelbourne
Near trough — cycle lowFill when you need toNo clear timing signal right now. Fill up when you need to.
Brisbane
Near peak — likely to fall soonYou have timeWednesday is historically the cheapest day to fill up in Brisbane. That's 1 day away. If your tank allows, waiting could save up to 3.8¢/L. Global supply costs are currently 13% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Perth
Cycle position unclearFill up nowToday (Tuesday) is usually the cheapest day of the week here, and prices typically jump back up within a day or two — the weekly swing is about 12¢/L. Fill up today. Global supply costs are currently 13% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Adelaide
Near trough — cycle lowFill when you need toNo clear timing signal right now. Fill up when you need to.
Canberra
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeHobart
Near peak — likely to fall soonYou have timeWednesday is historically the cheapest day to fill up in Hobart. That's 1 day away. If your tank allows, waiting could save up to 4.3¢/L. Global supply costs are currently 13% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Darwin
Near peak — likely to fall soonYou have timeLooking ahead
Sydney, Brisbane, Hobart, Darwin are in the rising leg of the local price cycle, so expect bowser prices to climb before they fall again; Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Sydney (around 0 days away from the next trough), Canberra (around 0 days away from the next trough), Darwin (around 0 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Perth are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them into an import parity estimate (crude converted to Australian cents per litre, plus a fixed refining and shipping margin, excise and GST) to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.