Market Update
Tuesday 29 September 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 29 September 2026
What moved this week
As of Tuesday 29 September 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 237.9c/L, roughly steady on last week. Diesel averages 286.6c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 236.9c/L. Wholesale import costs held around 159.7c/L, suggesting little fresh pressure on pump prices from the global side.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$95.98
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6989
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
159.7
cents per litre
Estimated cost of imported fuel, incl. excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 2.6% over the past week to US$95.98 per barrel, while the Australian dollar weakened 1.8% against the US dollar, lifting the local cost of imported fuel. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices remain elevated — global supply costs are higher than usual Petrol import costs are currently around 15% above where they were six weeks ago, driven by global supply disruptions. While costs have stabilised in the short term, the price floor has risen — expect to pay more than historical averages for the foreseeable future. Short-term cycle swings still apply, but each peak and trough will be higher than what was normal before the disruption.
Import parity hasn't moved much this week, so any pump price changes you see at the bowser will be driven mainly by the local discounting cycle rather than the global signal.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Tuesday 29 September 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 237.6c | 218.9c |
| Melbourne | 234.5c | 221.9c |
| Brisbane | 236.3c | 217.5c |
| Adelaide | 233.8c | 222.7c |
| Perth | 226.5c | 217.9c |
| Canberra | 244.8c | 227.9c |
| Hobart | 244.8c | 226.9c |
| Darwin | 245.3c | 198.0c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Tuesday 29 September 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Shared signal — Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Darwin
A reasonable day to fill up if you need fuel. Import costs have dropped 5% in 2 weeks, so pump prices should ease before long.
Sydney
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill up nowMelbourne
Cycle position unclearFill up nowBrisbane
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill up nowWednesday is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Brisbane (up to 3.7¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up. Import costs have dropped 5% in 2 weeks, so pump prices should ease before long.
Perth
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeWorth waiting. The AUD has weakened 1.6%. Import costs have dropped 5% in 2 weeks. The upcoming cycle low (in ~1 day) should be noticeably cheaper as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump.
Adelaide
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill up nowWednesday is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Adelaide (up to 4.4¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up. Import costs have dropped 5% in 2 weeks, so pump prices should ease before long.
Canberra
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill up nowHobart
Cycle position unclearFill up nowWednesday is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Hobart (up to 3.7¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up. Import costs have dropped 5% in 2 weeks, so pump prices should ease before long.
Darwin
Cycle position unclearFill up nowLooking ahead
Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra are in the rising leg of the local price cycle, so expect bowser prices to climb before they fall again; Perth is on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Perth (around 1 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them into an import parity estimate (crude converted to Australian cents per litre, plus a fixed refining and shipping margin, excise and GST) to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.