Friday 3 July 2026

Brent crude held 0.9% over the past week to US$72.13 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.5% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.

The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Prices likely to ease over the next 4 weeks Crude oil has fallen 11% and the australian dollar has weakened — the cost of importing petrol is down 6%. That typically flows through to the pump within 3–4 weeks. Don't over-fill right now — cheaper prices are likely coming.

Import parity hasn't moved much this week, so any pump price changes you see at the bowser will be driven mainly by the local discounting cycle rather than the global signal.

Sydney, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart are in the rising leg of the local price cycle, so expect bowser prices to climb before they fall again; Melbourne, Brisbane, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.

Across our coverage, the cycle call leans toward fill-up now in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin — the model's read is that prices are at or near the local trough and likely to climb in coming days.

Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.