Market Update
Wednesday 27 May 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Wednesday 27 May 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 185.8c/L, down 1.4c on last week. Diesel averages 229.6c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 195.3c/L. Wholesale import costs eased 6.7% over the past week to an estimated 154.8c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$93.02
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7143
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
154.8
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 11.3% over the past week to US$93.02 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.3% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Prices likely to ease over the next 4 weeks Crude oil has fallen 9% and the australian dollar has weakened — the cost of importing petrol is down 5%. That typically flows through to the pump within 3–4 weeks. Don't over-fill right now — cheaper prices are likely coming.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Wednesday 27 May 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 185.1c | 172.9c |
| Melbourne | 184.7c | 159.9c |
| Brisbane | 185.6c | 166.5c |
| Adelaide | 176.3c | 166.7c |
| Perth | 186.4c | 167.3c |
| Canberra | 184.4c | 176.7c |
| Hobart | 191.1c | 178.9c |
| Darwin | 193.0c | 182.9c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Wednesday 27 May 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Monday tends to be the cheapest day in Sydney. Fill up when convenient.
Melbourne
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill when you need toNo clear timing signal right now. Fill up when you need to.
Brisbane
Near peak — likely to fall soonYou have timeFri–Sun is historically the cheapest day to fill up in Brisbane. That's 1 day away. If your tank allows, waiting could save up to 2.8¢/L.
Perth
Near trough — cycle lowYou have timeA price low is expected in about 7 days — worth holding off if your tank allows.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toNo clear timing signal right now. Fill up when you need to.
Canberra
Near peak — likely to fall soonYou have timeMon, Tue, Wed, Fri is historically the cheapest day to fill up in Canberra. That's 1 day away. If your tank allows, waiting could save up to 3.4¢/L.
Hobart
Cycle position unclearYou have timeSat–Sun is historically the cheapest day to fill up in Hobart. That's 2 days away. If your tank allows, waiting could save up to 3.6¢/L.
Darwin
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeFri–Sun is historically the cheapest day to fill up in Darwin. That's 1 day away. If your tank allows, waiting could save up to 3.6¢/L.
Looking ahead
Melbourne, Brisbane, Canberra are in the rising leg of the local price cycle, so expect bowser prices to climb before they fall again; Perth, Adelaide, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Brisbane (around 8 days away from the next trough), Perth (around 7 days away from the next trough), Canberra (around 0 days away from the next trough).
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.