Market Update
Monday 4 May 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Monday 4 May 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 183.6c/L, down 2.3c on last week. Diesel averages 251.3c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 199.9c/L. Wholesale import costs lifted 7.4% over the past week to an estimated 174.6c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$114.03
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7175
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
174.6
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude climbed 12.0% over the past week to US$114.03 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.2% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning higher. Prices likely higher over the next 4 weeks The cost of importing petrol is up 8% — crude oil has risen 15% recently. Both factors increase what retailers pay before they set prices at the pump. Even at the next price cycle low, expect to pay more than last month's low. If your tank allows, fill up a little more than usual now.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale increases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Monday 4 May 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 181.3c | 170.9c |
| Melbourne | 180.1c | 119.9c |
| Brisbane | 181.3c | 169.5c |
| Adelaide | 177.3c | 167.9c |
| Perth | 177.3c | 159.3c |
| Canberra | 180.7c | 171.9c |
| Hobart | 192.7c | 177.9c |
| Darwin | 198.3c | 175.9c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Monday 4 May 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, import costs have risen 8% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Melbourne
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, import costs have risen 8% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Brisbane
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, import costs have risen 8% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Perth
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, import costs have risen 8% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, import costs have risen 11% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Canberra
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, import costs have risen 8% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Hobart
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, import costs have risen 11% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Darwin
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, import costs have risen 11% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Looking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
Across our coverage, the cycle call leans toward fill-up now in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin — the model's read is that prices are at or near the local trough and likely to climb in coming days.
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased upward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.