Wednesday 22 April 2026

Brent crude climbed 7.0% over the past week to US$101.40 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.2% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.

The four-week outlook is leaning higher. Prices remain elevated — global supply costs are higher than usual Petrol import costs are currently around 16% above where they were six weeks ago, driven by global supply disruptions. While costs have stabilised in the short term, the price floor has risen — expect to pay more than historical averages for the foreseeable future. Short-term cycle swings still apply, but each peak and trough will be higher than what was normal before the disruption.

Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale increases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.

Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.

Across our coverage, the cycle call leans toward fill-up now in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart — the model's read is that prices are at or near the local trough and likely to climb in coming days.

Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased upward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.