Market Update
Friday 10 April 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 10 April 2026
What moved this week
As of Friday 10 April 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 222.9c/L, down 6.2c on last week. Diesel averages 321.7c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 225.9c/L. Wholesale import costs eased 9.7% over the past week to an estimated 157.2c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$94.45
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7062
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
157.2
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 13.4% over the past week to US$94.45 per barrel, while the Australian dollar strengthened 2.5% against the US dollar, trimming the local cost of imported fuel. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Prices likely to ease over the next 4 weeks Crude oil has fallen 14% and the australian dollar has strengthened — the cost of importing petrol is down 10%. That typically flows through to the pump within 3–4 weeks. Don't over-fill right now — cheaper prices are likely coming.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Friday 10 April 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 221.0c | 207.7c |
| Melbourne | 224.4c | 211.5c |
| Brisbane | 222.1c | 209.9c |
| Adelaide | 220.6c | 215.9c |
| Perth | 221.0c | 189.3c |
| Canberra | 218.7c | 211.9c |
| Hobart | 225.7c | 210.9c |
| Darwin | 229.4c | 222.5c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Friday 10 April 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Shared signal — Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin
Import costs have dropped 12% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 2.8%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.
Sydney
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeWorth waiting. the AUD has strengthened 2.8%. Import costs have dropped 12% in 2 weeks. The upcoming cycle low (in ~2 days) should be noticeably cheaper as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump.
Melbourne
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowPrices have dropped significantly — down ~17¢/L from recent levels. This is a good time to fill up before prices stabilise or start rising again.
Brisbane
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toPerth
Near trough — cycle lowFill up nowFill up now. the AUD has strengthened 2.8%. Prices are at their cycle low, and import costs have dropped 12% in 2 weeks. Future lows may be even cheaper as wholesale costs flow through.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toCanberra
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toHobart
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toDarwin
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toLooking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Sydney (around 2 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Melbourne, Perth are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.