Market Update
Tuesday 14 July 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Tuesday 14 July 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 170.6c/L, roughly steady on last week. Diesel averages 194.2c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 167.9c/L. Wholesale import costs lifted 5.3% over the past week to an estimated 147.7c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$83.02
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6920
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
147.7
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude climbed 9.7% over the past week to US$83.02 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.2% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices likely to stay in a similar range Crude oil and the Australian dollar have both been relatively stable over the past two weeks — import costs haven't changed much. Prices will still cycle up and down short-term. Use the 7-day recommendation above for timing your fill-ups.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale increases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Tuesday 14 July 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 168.3c | 147.9c |
| Melbourne | 167.3c | 141.5c |
| Brisbane | 170.7c | 155.9c |
| Adelaide | 164.0c | 139.9c |
| Perth | 162.4c | 151.9c |
| Canberra | 176.5c | 162.7c |
| Hobart | 179.6c | 160.9c |
| Darwin | 175.8c | 169.5c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Tuesday 14 July 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill up nowFill up now. Rising import costs (7% in 2 weeks) mean the next cycle low will be higher than recent lows. Prices at the pump are likely to stay elevated.
Melbourne
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill up nowFill up now. Rising import costs (7% in 2 weeks) mean the next cycle low will be higher than recent lows. Prices at the pump are likely to stay elevated.
Brisbane
Cycle position unclearFill up nowFill up now. Rising import costs (7% in 2 weeks) mean the next cycle low will be higher than recent lows. Prices at the pump are likely to stay elevated.
Perth
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePrices here follow a strong weekly pattern — Tuesday is usually cheapest, about 9¢/L below the week's peak. Worth waiting ~6 days for the weekly low.
Adelaide
Near trough — cycle lowFill up nowFill up now. Rising import costs (7% in 2 weeks) mean the next cycle low will be higher than recent lows. Prices at the pump are likely to stay elevated.
Canberra
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill up nowFill up now. Rising import costs (7% in 2 weeks) mean the next cycle low will be higher than recent lows. Prices at the pump are likely to stay elevated.
Hobart
Near trough — cycle lowFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, import costs have risen 7% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Darwin
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill up nowFill up now. Rising import costs (7% in 2 weeks) mean the next cycle low will be higher than recent lows. Prices at the pump are likely to stay elevated.
Looking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Darwin are in the rising leg of the local price cycle, so expect bowser prices to climb before they fall again; Perth, Adelaide, Hobart are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Perth (around 6 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.