Market Update
Monday 13 July 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
Wholesale import costs lifted 2.9% over the past week to an estimated 140.3c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$76.01
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6953
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
140.3
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude climbed 5.3% over the past week to US$76.01 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.1% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Retail margins elevated — correction likely Petrol stations are earning 8c/L more than their historical average margin. This level of profitability tends to attract competition and compress prices over time — even if crude stays flat. Prices may ease in the coming weeks.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale increases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Monday 13 July 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Near trough — cycle lowFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Fri–Sun tends to be the cheapest day in Sydney. Fill up when convenient.
Melbourne
Near trough — cycle lowFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Sat–Sun tends to be the cheapest day in Melbourne. Fill up when convenient.
Brisbane
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Fri–Sun tends to be the cheapest day in Brisbane. Fill up when convenient.
Perth
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toPrices here usually follow a weekly pattern, but there isn't a clearly cheaper day worth waiting for right now — fill up when you need to.
Adelaide
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Fri, Sun tends to be the cheapest day in Adelaide. Fill up when convenient.
Canberra
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Fri–Sun tends to be the cheapest day in Canberra. Fill up when convenient.
Hobart
Near peak — likely to fall soonFill when you need toPrices are easing, but there's no sharp drop to wait for in the next few days. Fill up when you need to.
Darwin
Near trough — cycle lowFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Sat–Sun tends to be the cheapest day in Darwin. Fill up when convenient.
Looking ahead
Adelaide, Hobart are in the rising leg of the local price cycle, so expect bowser prices to climb before they fall again; Sydney, Melbourne, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.