Market Update
Friday 10 July 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Friday 10 July 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 170.6c/L, up 3.7c on last week. Diesel averages 191.0c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 164.0c/L. Wholesale import costs lifted 2.7% over the past week to an estimated 140.3c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$76.07
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6956
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
140.3
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude climbed 5.5% over the past week to US$76.07 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.2% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices likely to stay in a similar range Crude oil and the Australian dollar have both been relatively stable over the past two weeks — import costs haven't changed much. Prices will still cycle up and down short-term. Use the 7-day recommendation above for timing your fill-ups.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale increases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Friday 10 July 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 166.1c | 147.9c |
| Melbourne | 166.1c | 141.5c |
| Brisbane | 170.4c | 153.9c |
| Adelaide | 163.7c | 151.7c |
| Perth | 167.1c | 142.7c |
| Canberra | 176.7c | 162.7c |
| Hobart | 179.1c | 157.9c |
| Darwin | 175.7c | 169.5c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Friday 10 July 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Friday tends to be the cheapest day in Sydney. Fill up when convenient.
Melbourne
Cycle position unclearFill up nowFri–Sat is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Melbourne (up to 4.8¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Brisbane
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Friday tends to be the cheapest day in Brisbane. Fill up when convenient.
Perth
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toPrices here usually follow a weekly pattern, but there isn't a clearly cheaper day worth waiting for right now — fill up when you need to.
Adelaide
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Friday tends to be the cheapest day in Adelaide. Fill up when convenient.
Canberra
Cycle position unclearFill up nowFri–Sat is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Canberra (up to 3.8¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Hobart
Cycle position unclearFill up nowFri–Sat is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Hobart (up to 3.2¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Darwin
Cycle position unclearFill up nowFri–Sat is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Darwin (up to 3.6¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Looking ahead
Across our coverage, the cycle call leans toward fill-up now in Melbourne, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin — the model's read is that prices are at or near the local trough and likely to climb in coming days.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.