Market Update
Thursday 9 July 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
Wholesale import costs lifted 5.1% over the past week to an estimated 143.2c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$78.76
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6940
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
143.2
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude climbed 10.0% over the past week to US$78.76 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.2% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices likely to stay in a similar range Crude oil and the Australian dollar have both been relatively stable over the past two weeks — import costs haven't changed much. Prices will still cycle up and down short-term. Use the 7-day recommendation above for timing your fill-ups.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale increases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Thursday 9 July 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill up nowWed–Thu is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Sydney (up to 2.3¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Melbourne
Cycle position unclearFill up nowWed–Thu is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Melbourne (up to 2.5¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Brisbane
Cycle position unclearFill up nowWed–Thu is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Brisbane (up to 2.3¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Perth
Near trough — cycle lowYou have timePrices here follow a strong weekly pattern — Tuesday is usually cheapest, about 9¢/L below the week's peak. Worth waiting ~5 days for the weekly low.
Adelaide
Cycle position unclearFill up nowWed–Thu is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Adelaide (up to 3.0¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Canberra
Cycle position unclearFill up nowWed–Thu is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Canberra (up to 2.4¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Hobart
Cycle position unclearFill up nowWed–Thu is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Hobart (up to 2.3¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Darwin
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toNot enough of a clear pattern to make a strong call right now. Fill up when you need to.
Looking ahead
Perth is on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Perth (around 5 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.