Market Update
Friday 27 March 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Friday 27 March 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 255.4c/L, up 10.8c on last week. Diesel averages 308.4c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 294.9c/L. Wholesale import costs eased 1.2% over the past week to an estimated 172.2c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$106.84
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6873
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
172.2
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 4.8% over the past week to US$106.84 per barrel, while the Australian dollar weakened 2.9% against the US dollar, lifting the local cost of imported fuel. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning higher. Prices remain elevated — global supply costs are higher than usual Petrol import costs are currently around 34% above where they were six weeks ago, driven by global supply disruptions. While costs have stabilised in the short term, the price floor has risen — expect to pay more than historical averages for the foreseeable future. Short-term cycle swings still apply, but each peak and trough will be higher than what was normal before the disruption.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Friday 27 March 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Friday 27 March 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toNo clear high or low right now — prices are in the middle of the cycle. The next price dip is around 16 days away. Fill up when you need to. Global supply costs are currently 35% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Melbourne
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toThe cycle is overdue for a low point. The last low was 23 days ago. Fill up when you need to. No clear direction yet — watch for the dip. Global supply costs are currently 35% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Brisbane
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toNo clear high or low right now — prices are in the middle of the cycle. The next price dip is around 25 days away. Fill up when you need to. Global supply costs are currently 35% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Perth
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toThe cycle is overdue for a low point. The last low was 24 days ago. Fill up when you need to. No clear direction yet — watch for the dip. Global supply costs are currently 35% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Canberra
Cycle position unclearYou have timeA price low is expected in about 2 days — worth holding off if your tank allows. Global supply costs are currently 35% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Looking ahead
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Canberra (around 2 days away from the next trough).
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased upward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.