Market Update
Saturday 19 September 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 19 September 2026
What moved this week
As of Saturday 19 September 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 235.9c/L, up 20.7c on last week. Diesel averages 283.7c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 253.9c/L. Wholesale import costs held around 165.6c/L, suggesting little fresh pressure on pump prices from the global side.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$103.87
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7121
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
165.6
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude held 0.7% over the past week to US$103.87 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.7% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices remain elevated — global supply costs are higher than usual Petrol import costs are currently around 20% above where they were six weeks ago, driven by global supply disruptions. While costs have stabilised in the short term, the price floor has risen — expect to pay more than historical averages for the foreseeable future. Short-term cycle swings still apply, but each peak and trough will be higher than what was normal before the disruption.
Import parity hasn't moved much this week, so any pump price changes you see at the bowser will be driven mainly by the local discounting cycle rather than the global signal.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Saturday 19 September 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 236.9c | 199.0c |
| Melbourne | 229.5c | 207.9c |
| Brisbane | 235.1c | 215.5c |
| Adelaide | 230.5c | 218.7c |
| Perth | 232.0c | 212.7c |
| Canberra | 242.9c | 225.9c |
| Hobart | 240.4c | 224.9c |
| Darwin | 240.1c | 198.0c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Saturday 19 September 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Shared signal — Sydney, Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin
Even though the price cycle suggests waiting, import costs have risen 6% in two weeks and the AUD has weakened 1.3%. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Shared signal — Melbourne, Brisbane, Canberra
Fill up now. The AUD has weakened 1.3%. Rising import costs (6% in 2 weeks) mean the next cycle low will be higher than recent lows. Prices at the pump are likely to stay elevated.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill up nowMelbourne
Cycle position unclearFill up nowBrisbane
Cycle position unclearFill up nowPerth
Cycle position unclearYou have timePrices here follow a strong weekly pattern — Tuesday is usually cheapest, about 11¢/L below the week's peak. Worth waiting ~3 days for the weekly low.
Adelaide
Cycle position unclearFill up nowCanberra
Cycle position unclearFill up nowHobart
Cycle position unclearFill up nowDarwin
Cycle position unclearFill up nowLooking ahead
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Perth (around 3 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.