Wednesday 16 September 2026

Brent crude climbed 3.9% over the past week to US$105.34 per barrel, while the Australian dollar weakened 1.8% against the US dollar, lifting the local cost of imported fuel. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.

The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices remain elevated — global supply costs are higher than usual Petrol import costs are currently around 21% above where they were six weeks ago, driven by global supply disruptions. While costs have stabilised in the short term, the price floor has risen — expect to pay more than historical averages for the foreseeable future. Short-term cycle swings still apply, but each peak and trough will be higher than what was normal before the disruption.

Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale increases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.

If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Perth (around 6 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.