Market Update
Wednesday 1 July 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
Wholesale import costs held around 138.2c/L, suggesting little fresh pressure on pump prices from the global side.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$73.29
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6893
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
138.2
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude held broadly steady around US$73.29 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.0% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices remain below recent norms — global costs have eased Petrol import costs are around 16% below where they were six weeks ago. The price floor has dropped — even though costs have stabilised recently, the new baseline is lower than it was. Each cycle low should be noticeably cheaper than it was last month.
Import parity hasn't moved much this week, so any pump price changes you see at the bowser will be driven mainly by the local discounting cycle rather than the global signal.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Wednesday 1 July 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowThe Fuel excise relief wound back has taken effect. Prices are rising by around 16c/L and may keep climbing over the coming days as it flows through to the pump. Worth filling up now.
Melbourne
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowThe Fuel excise relief wound back has taken effect. Prices are rising by around 16c/L and may keep climbing over the coming days as it flows through to the pump. Worth filling up now.
Brisbane
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowThe Fuel excise relief wound back has taken effect. Prices are rising by around 16c/L and may keep climbing over the coming days as it flows through to the pump. Worth filling up now.
Perth
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowThe Fuel excise relief wound back has taken effect. Prices are rising by around 16c/L and may keep climbing over the coming days as it flows through to the pump. Worth filling up now.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowThe Fuel excise relief wound back has taken effect. Prices are rising by around 16c/L and may keep climbing over the coming days as it flows through to the pump. Worth filling up now.
Canberra
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowThe Fuel excise relief wound back has taken effect. Prices are rising by around 16c/L and may keep climbing over the coming days as it flows through to the pump. Worth filling up now.
Hobart
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowThe Fuel excise relief wound back has taken effect. Prices are rising by around 16c/L and may keep climbing over the coming days as it flows through to the pump. Worth filling up now.
Darwin
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowThe Fuel excise relief wound back has taken effect. Prices are rising by around 16c/L and may keep climbing over the coming days as it flows through to the pump. Worth filling up now.
Looking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
Across our coverage, the cycle call leans toward fill-up now in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin — the model's read is that prices are at or near the local trough and likely to climb in coming days.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.