Market Update
Tuesday 23 June 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
Wholesale import costs held steady 0.7% over the past week to an estimated 141.7c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$77.56
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6966
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
141.7
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 2.8% over the past week to US$77.56 per barrel, while the Australian dollar weakened 1.5% against the US dollar, lifting the local cost of imported fuel. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Prices likely to ease over the next 4 weeks Crude oil has fallen 17% — the cost of importing petrol is down 10%. That typically flows through to the pump within 3–4 weeks. Don't over-fill right now — cheaper prices are likely coming.
Import parity hasn't moved much this week, so any pump price changes you see at the bowser will be driven mainly by the local discounting cycle rather than the global signal.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Tuesday 23 June 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePrices are drifting steadily down with no sign of a jump. A cheaper day is likely within the next day or two — worth holding off if your tank allows.
Melbourne
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePrices are drifting steadily down with no sign of a jump. A cheaper day is likely within the next day or two — worth holding off if your tank allows.
Brisbane
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeImport costs have dropped 10% in 2 weeks. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to. The Fuel excise relief wound back is expected to push prices up around 16c/L within around 8 days. Worth a full fill before it lands.
Perth
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeWorth waiting. Import costs have dropped 10% in 2 weeks. The upcoming cycle low (in ~2 days) should be noticeably cheaper as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. The Fuel excise relief wound back is expected to push prices up around 16c/L within around 8 days. Worth a full fill before it lands.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toNo clear timing signal right now. Fill up when you need to. The Fuel excise relief wound back is expected to push prices up around 16c/L within around 8 days. Worth a full fill before it lands.
Canberra
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePrices are drifting steadily down with no sign of a jump. A cheaper day is likely within the next day or two — worth holding off if your tank allows.
Hobart
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePrices are drifting steadily down with no sign of a jump. A cheaper day is likely within the next day or two — worth holding off if your tank allows.
Darwin
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeImport costs have dropped 10% in 2 weeks. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to. The Fuel excise relief wound back is expected to push prices up around 16c/L within around 8 days. Worth a full fill before it lands.
Looking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Brisbane (around 0 days away from the next trough), Perth (around 2 days away from the next trough), Darwin (around 0 days away from the next trough).
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.