Market Update
Monday 15 June 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
Wholesale import costs eased 4.4% over the past week to an estimated 150.4c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$87.33
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7049
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
150.4
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 7.4% over the past week to US$87.33 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.0% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Prices likely to ease over the next 4 weeks Crude oil has fallen 8% and the australian dollar has weakened — the cost of importing petrol is down 4%. That typically flows through to the pump within 3–4 weeks. Don't over-fill right now — cheaper prices are likely coming.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Monday 15 June 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowMon, Sat, Sun is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Sydney (up to 2.2¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Melbourne
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Sat–Sun tends to be the cheapest day in Melbourne. Fill up when convenient.
Brisbane
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Fri–Sun tends to be the cheapest day in Brisbane. Fill up when convenient.
Perth
Near trough — cycle lowFill up nowToday (Mon–Tue) is usually the cheapest day of the week here, and prices typically jump back up within a day or two — the weekly swing is about 10¢/L. Fill up today. Mon–Tue is also historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Perth.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toNo clear timing signal right now. Fill up when you need to.
Canberra
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowMonday is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Canberra (up to 2.3¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Hobart
Near trough — cycle lowFill when you need toNot enough of a clear pattern to make a strong call right now. Fill up when you need to.
Darwin
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePrices are stable right now. Friday tends to be the cheapest day in Darwin. Fill up when convenient.
Looking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Darwin (around 0 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Sydney, Perth, Canberra are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.