Market Update
Saturday 13 June 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
Wholesale import costs eased 3.9% over the past week to an estimated 149.9c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$86.90
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7052
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
149.9
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 6.6% over the past week to US$86.90 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.0% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Mixed signals — outlook uncertain Crude oil has fallen 6% but the Australian dollar has also weakened — these forces partially cancel each other out. The net impact on import costs is small. Short-term cycle timing matters more than the macro trend right now — use the 7-day recommendation above.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Saturday 13 June 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePrices here follow a strong weekly pattern — Friday is usually cheapest, about 5¢/L below the week's peak. Worth waiting ~6 days for the weekly low.
Melbourne
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowFri–Sun is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Melbourne (up to 3.4¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Brisbane
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowSat–Sun is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Brisbane (up to 2.8¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up.
Perth
Near trough — cycle lowYou have timePrices here follow a strong weekly pattern — Tuesday is usually cheapest, about 10¢/L below the week's peak. Worth waiting ~3 days for the weekly low.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toNo clear timing signal right now. Fill up when you need to.
Canberra
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePrices here follow a strong weekly pattern — Friday is usually cheapest, about 5¢/L below the week's peak. Worth waiting ~6 days for the weekly low.
Hobart
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeFri, Sun is historically the cheapest day to fill up in Hobart. That's 1 day away. If your tank allows, waiting could save up to 3.3¢/L.
Darwin
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timePrices are stable right now. Friday tends to be the cheapest day in Darwin. Fill up when convenient.
Looking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Sydney (around 21 days away from the next trough), Perth (around 10 days away from the next trough), Canberra (around 0 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Melbourne, Brisbane are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.