Market Update
Thursday 21 May 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Thursday 21 May 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 186.9c/L, up 2.5c on last week. Diesel averages 233.1c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 196.2c/L. Wholesale import costs held steady 0.8% over the past week to an estimated 165.2c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$104.04
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7158
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
165.2
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 2.1% over the past week to US$104.04 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.9% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices remain elevated — global supply costs are higher than usual Petrol import costs are currently around 21% above where they were six weeks ago, driven by global supply disruptions. While costs have stabilised in the short term, the price floor has risen — expect to pay more than historical averages for the foreseeable future. Short-term cycle swings still apply, but each peak and trough will be higher than what was normal before the disruption.
Import parity hasn't moved much this week, so any pump price changes you see at the bowser will be driven mainly by the local discounting cycle rather than the global signal.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Thursday 21 May 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 187.3c | 168.9c |
| Melbourne | 185.8c | 149.9c |
| Brisbane | 187.2c | 165.5c |
| Adelaide | 178.4c | 167.5c |
| Perth | 184.3c | 163.3c |
| Canberra | 184.4c | 174.9c |
| Hobart | 191.2c | 169.9c |
| Darwin | 196.8c | 185.5c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Thursday 21 May 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toNot enough of a clear pattern to make a strong call right now. Fill up when you need to.
Melbourne
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toNo clear timing signal right now. Fill up when you need to.
Brisbane
Cycle position unclearFill up nowFri–Sun is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Brisbane (up to 2.8¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up. Global supply costs are currently 20% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Perth
Near trough — cycle lowYou have timeA price low is expected in about 7 days — worth holding off if your tank allows. Global supply costs are currently 20% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Adelaide
Cycle position unclearFill up nowFri, Sun is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Adelaide (up to 4.8¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Even though the cycle suggests waiting, today is statistically a good fill-up day. Global supply costs are currently 20% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Canberra
Near peak — likely to fall soonYou have timeA price low is expected in about 4 days — worth holding off if your tank allows. Global supply costs are currently 20% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Hobart
Near trough — cycle lowYou have timeSat–Sun is historically the cheapest day to fill up in Hobart. That's 1 day away. If your tank allows, waiting could save up to 4.2¢/L. Global supply costs are currently 20% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Darwin
Near trough — cycle lowFill up nowFri–Sun is historically one of the cheapest days to fill up in Darwin (up to 3.9¢/L cheaper than the most expensive day). Today is a good day to fill up. Global supply costs are currently 20% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Looking ahead
Canberra is in the rising leg of the local price cycle, so expect bowser prices to climb before they fall again; Perth, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Perth (around 7 days away from the next trough), Canberra (around 4 days away from the next trough), Hobart (around 14 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Brisbane, Adelaide, Darwin are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.