Market Update
Wednesday 20 May 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Wednesday 20 May 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 187.2c/L, up 2.2c on last week. Diesel averages 233.9c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 192.3c/L. Wholesale import costs held around 166.0c/L, suggesting little fresh pressure on pump prices from the global side.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$104.92
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7162
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
166.0
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude held 0.9% over the past week to US$104.92 per barrel, while the Australian dollar weakened 1.3% against the US dollar, lifting the local cost of imported fuel. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices remain elevated — global supply costs are higher than usual Petrol import costs are currently around 27% above where they were six weeks ago, driven by global supply disruptions. While costs have stabilised in the short term, the price floor has risen — expect to pay more than historical averages for the foreseeable future. Short-term cycle swings still apply, but each peak and trough will be higher than what was normal before the disruption.
Import parity hasn't moved much this week, so any pump price changes you see at the bowser will be driven mainly by the local discounting cycle rather than the global signal.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Wednesday 20 May 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 187.4c | 173.9c |
| Melbourne | 185.8c | 149.9c |
| Brisbane | 187.1c | 165.5c |
| Adelaide | 178.0c | 167.5c |
| Perth | 187.3c | 159.3c |
| Canberra | 184.1c | 173.9c |
| Hobart | 190.6c | 176.0c |
| Darwin | 197.4c | 179.9c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Wednesday 20 May 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 1.8%. import costs have risen 7% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Melbourne
Cycle position unclearFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 1.8%. import costs have risen 7% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Brisbane
Cycle position unclearFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 1.8%. import costs have risen 7% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Perth
Near trough — cycle lowFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 1.8%. import costs have risen 7% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Adelaide
Rising — heading toward peakFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 1.8%. import costs have risen 7% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Canberra
Cycle position unclearFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 1.8%. import costs have risen 7% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Hobart
Near trough — cycle lowFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 1.8%. import costs have risen 7% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Darwin
Near trough — cycle lowFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 1.8%. import costs have risen 7% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Looking ahead
Adelaide is in the rising leg of the local price cycle, so expect bowser prices to climb before they fall again; Perth, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
Across our coverage, the cycle call leans toward fill-up now in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin — the model's read is that prices are at or near the local trough and likely to climb in coming days.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.