Market Update
Tuesday 14 April 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Tuesday 14 April 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 218.3c/L, down 9.0c on last week. Diesel averages 316.8c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 288.9c/L. Wholesale import costs eased 8.4% over the past week to an estimated 156.8c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$94.93
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7128
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
156.8
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 11.4% over the past week to US$94.93 per barrel, while the Australian dollar strengthened 2.3% against the US dollar, trimming the local cost of imported fuel. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning higher. Prices remain elevated — global supply costs are higher than usual Petrol import costs are currently around 22% above where they were six weeks ago, driven by global supply disruptions. While costs have stabilised in the short term, the price floor has risen — expect to pay more than historical averages for the foreseeable future. Short-term cycle swings still apply, but each peak and trough will be higher than what was normal before the disruption.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Tuesday 14 April 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 216.7c | 200.5c |
| Melbourne | 219.0c | 192.9c |
| Brisbane | 218.4c | 31.5c |
| Adelaide | 219.0c | 209.5c |
| Perth | 208.0c | 185.7c |
| Canberra | 217.6c | 209.9c |
| Hobart | 220.5c | 206.9c |
| Darwin | 227.2c | 222.0c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Tuesday 14 April 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowPrices are about 9¢/L below last week and sitting at the weekly low. Today is good value — even if the cycle hasn't fully bottomed.
Melbourne
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowImport costs have dropped 5% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 3.0%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.
Brisbane
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowImport costs have dropped 5% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 3.0%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.
Perth
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toImport costs have dropped 5% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 3.0%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowImport costs have dropped 5% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 3.0%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.
Canberra
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeImport costs have dropped 5% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 3.0%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.
Hobart
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowImport costs have dropped 5% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 3.0%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.
Darwin
Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need toNot enough of a clear pattern to make a strong call right now. Fill up when you need to.
Looking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Canberra (around 0 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased upward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.