PetrolPulse

Market Update

Sunday 12 April 2026

Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook

What moved this week

As of Sunday 12 April 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 217.4c/L, down 7.6c on last week. Diesel averages 315.9c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 292.9c/L. Wholesale import costs eased 6.2% over the past week to an estimated 165.8c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.

Wholesale market signals

Brent Crude

US$102.59

per barrel

vs week prior:-8.0%

Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag

AUD/USD

0.7019

exchange rate

vs week prior:+2.0%

A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel

Import Parity

165.8

cents per litre

vs week prior:-6.2%

Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST

What this means for pump prices

Lowerhigh confidence4-week outlook

Brent crude eased 8.0% over the past week to US$102.59 per barrel, while the Australian dollar strengthened 2.0% against the US dollar, trimming the local cost of imported fuel. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.

The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Prices likely to ease over the next 4 weeks Crude oil has fallen 14% and the australian dollar has strengthened — the cost of importing petrol is down 10%. That typically flows through to the pump within 3–4 weeks. Don't over-fill right now — cheaper prices are likely coming.

Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.

Capital city pump prices

Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Sunday 12 April 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.

CityU91 avgU91 cheap
Sydney218.9c207.9c
Perth215.1c188.3c
Canberra218.1c211.9c

Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.

City-by-city cycle outlook

Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Sunday 12 April 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.

Sydney

Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need to
Avg: 218.9c/LConfidence: 80%

Import costs have dropped 6% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 2.5%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.

Melbourne

Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need to
Avg: 221.0c/LConfidence: 60%

Import costs have dropped 6% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 2.5%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.

Brisbane

Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need to
Avg: 219.9c/LConfidence: 48%

Import costs have dropped 6% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 2.5%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.

Perth

Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need to
Avg: 213.2c/LConfidence: 38%

Import costs have dropped 6% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 2.5%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.

Adelaide

Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need to
Avg: 220.1c/LConfidence: 45%

Import costs have dropped 6% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 2.5%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.

Canberra

Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need to
Avg: 218.2c/LConfidence: 80%

Import costs have dropped 6% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 2.5%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.

Hobart

Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need to
Avg: 222.6c/LConfidence: 45%

Import costs have dropped 6% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 2.5%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.

Darwin

Falling — heading toward troughFill when you need to
Avg: 227.7c/LConfidence: 45%

Import costs have dropped 6% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 2.5%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.

Looking ahead

Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.

Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.

How this update is generated

Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.

Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.

The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.

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