Market Update
Thursday 1 January 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Thursday 1 January 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 169.8c/L, down 4.7c on last week. Diesel averages 176.5c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 148.9c/L. Wholesale import costs eased 1.1% over the past week to an estimated 127.5c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$60.85
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6698
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
127.5
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 2.2% over the past week to US$60.85 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.1% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Thursday 1 January 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 171.3c | 130.9c |
| Melbourne | 156.6c | 156.6c |
| Brisbane | 177.8c | 145.9c |
| Perth | 175.8c | 148.3c |
| Canberra | 167.4c | 164.9c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.