The 16¢ excise rise has landed: petrol up 18–28¢/L since late June

When the fuel excise discount was halved on 1 July, the expectation was a roughly 16¢/L rise flowing through over a week or so. That has now happened — and pump prices have risen by more. Comparing PetrolPulse metro unleaded (U91) averages from 28 June to 22 July: Sydney is up 24¢ (154 → 178¢/L), Melbourne up 24¢ (155 → 178¢), Brisbane up 25¢ (156 → 181¢), Adelaide up 28¢ (150 → 177¢), Canberra up 22¢ (164 → 186¢), Hobart up 18¢ (169 → 187¢) and Darwin up 19¢ (166 → 185¢). Perth shows the largest swing on paper, but its strict weekly cycle means the snapshot depends heavily on the day of the week you measure.

Three things stacked. First, the excise change itself is slightly bigger than the headline number at the pump, because GST applies on top of excise — a 16¢ excise rise carries about 1.6¢ of extra GST with it. Second, several capitals were sitting near the bottom of their discount cycles in late June, so part of the increase is the normal cycle swinging back up from a low starting point. Third, wholesale costs haven't stood still over the same window. The ACCC flagged before the change that it would watch for retailers using the excise as cover for wider increases — the gap between 17–18¢ of tax effect and the 18–28¢ observed is worth watching, but cycle position explains much of it in most cities.

The step-down was deliberate. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the government halved the discount rather than removing it outright so there “wasn’t a big 32c change at midnight on the last day of June,” and confirmed the relief was always temporary and would not be extended again. The ACCC moved to weekly fuel price monitoring around the change, with its Anna Brakey noting that “fuel retailers may not face higher costs straight away on 1 July, as new fuel supplies can take time to reach them,” and the NRMA’s Peter Khoury urging drivers to fill up before the rise reached their area. One point worth being clear about, because it is widely misunderstood: the ACCC does not set or control fuel prices. It can act where retailers make false or misleading statements or where there is anti-competitive conduct, but a price rise larger than 16¢ is not unlawful in itself — it can reflect wholesale costs or where a city sits in its cycle.

The one-off "fill before it lands" window is over — the tax change is in the price now, and it isn't coming back out. The remaining discount ended entirely on 2 August. From here, timing goes back to each city's normal discount cycle: the question isn't whether the rise is coming, it's where your city sits in its cycle this week. Check your city's forecast for the current fill-up recommendation and find the cheapest station near you — in a higher-priced market, the spread between the cheapest and dearest station in the same suburb matters more, not less.