Market Update
Monday 24 August 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 24 August 2026
What moved this week
Wholesale import costs held steady 0.9% over the past week to an estimated 154.2c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$92.80
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7169
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
154.2
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude climbed 2.4% over the past week to US$92.80 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.9% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Retail margins elevated — correction likely Petrol stations are earning 10c/L more than their historical average margin. This level of profitability tends to attract competition and compress prices over time — even if crude stays flat. Prices may ease in the coming weeks.
Import parity hasn't moved much this week, so any pump price changes you see at the bowser will be driven mainly by the local discounting cycle rather than the global signal.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Monday 24 August 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Shared signal — Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Darwin
Prices are stable right now. Fill up when convenient.
Sydney
Rising — heading toward peakFill when you need toMelbourne
Rising — heading toward peakFill when you need toBrisbane
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Fri–Sat tends to be the cheapest day in Brisbane. Fill up when convenient.
Perth
Cycle position unclearYou have timePrices here follow a strong weekly pattern — Tuesday is usually cheapest, about 10¢/L below the week's peak. Worth waiting ~1 day for the weekly low.
Adelaide
Rising — heading toward peakFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Fri–Sat tends to be the cheapest day in Adelaide. Fill up when convenient.
Canberra
Rising — heading toward peakFill when you need toHobart
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toPrices are stable right now. Fri–Sat tends to be the cheapest day in Hobart. Fill up when convenient.
Darwin
Rising — heading toward peakFill when you need toLooking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra, Darwin are in the rising leg of the local price cycle, so expect bowser prices to climb before they fall again.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Perth (around 1 days away from the next trough).
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.