Market Update
Monday 27 July 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 27 July 2026
What moved this week
As of Monday 27 July 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 191.4c/L, up 13.9c on last week. Diesel averages 230.8c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 192.0c/L. Wholesale import costs held steady 0.5% over the past week to an estimated 151.7c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$87.93
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6988
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
151.7
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 1.1% over the past week to US$87.93 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.2% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is broadly stable. Prices likely to stay in a similar range Crude oil and the Australian dollar have both been relatively stable over the past two weeks — import costs haven't changed much. Prices will still cycle up and down short-term. Use the 7-day recommendation above for timing your fill-ups.
Import parity hasn't moved much this week, so any pump price changes you see at the bowser will be driven mainly by the local discounting cycle rather than the global signal.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Monday 27 July 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 187.8c | 174.4c |
| Melbourne | 187.3c | 168.7c |
| Brisbane | 190.4c | 172.9c |
| Adelaide | 189.7c | 176.7c |
| Perth | 185.7c | 166.7c |
| Canberra | 197.1c | 182.7c |
| Hobart | 196.6c | 175.5c |
| Darwin | 196.9c | 185.0c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Monday 27 July 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Shared signal — Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin
The fuel excise discount removal is expected to hit the pump within 6 days, pushing prices up by around 16c/L. Worth filling up before it lands.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill up nowMelbourne
Cycle position unclearFill up nowBrisbane
Cycle position unclearFill up nowPerth
Cycle position unclearFill up nowAdelaide
Cycle position unclearFill up nowCanberra
Cycle position unclearFill up nowHobart
Cycle position unclearFill up nowDarwin
Cycle position unclearFill up nowLooking ahead
Across our coverage, the cycle call leans toward fill-up now in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin — the model's read is that prices are at or near the local trough and likely to climb in coming days.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.