Market Update
Thursday 23 July 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
Produced automatically from PetrolPulse's live pricing data and forecast model — how our forecasts work. Methodology by Mark Schreuder · Data as of 23 July 2026
What moved this week
As of Thursday 23 July 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 184.2c/L, up 10.2c on last week. Diesel averages 220.8c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 189.0c/L. Wholesale import costs lifted 11.1% over the past week to an estimated 164.5c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$100.55
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6968
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
164.5
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude climbed 19.2% over the past week to US$100.55 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.4% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning higher. Prices likely higher over the next 4 weeks The cost of importing petrol is up 12% — crude oil has risen 22% recently. Both factors increase what retailers pay before they set prices at the pump. Even at the next price cycle low, expect to pay more than last month's low. If your tank allows, fill up a little more than usual now.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale increases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Thursday 23 July 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 180.4c | 164.5c |
| Melbourne | 179.1c | 161.9c |
| Brisbane | 183.6c | 165.9c |
| Adelaide | 180.2c | 164.7c |
| Perth | 183.7c | 158.7c |
| Canberra | 188.2c | 176.7c |
| Hobart | 189.6c | 169.9c |
| Darwin | 188.6c | 180.5c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Thursday 23 July 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Shared signal — Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin
Even though the price cycle suggests waiting, import costs have risen 12% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting. The fuel excise discount removal is expected to push prices up around 16c/L within around 10 days. Worth a full fill before it lands.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill up nowMelbourne
Cycle position unclearFill up nowBrisbane
Cycle position unclearFill up nowPerth
Near trough — cycle lowYou have timePrices here follow a strong weekly pattern — Tuesday is usually cheapest, about 10¢/L below the week's peak. Worth waiting ~5 days for the weekly low.
Adelaide
Cycle position unclearFill up nowCanberra
Cycle position unclearFill up nowHobart
Cycle position unclearFill up nowDarwin
Cycle position unclearFill up nowLooking ahead
Perth is on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Perth (around 5 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased upward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.