Market Update
Saturday 18 April 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Saturday 18 April 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 205.0c/L, down 14.4c on last week. Diesel averages 295.5c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 229.9c/L. Wholesale import costs eased 3.8% over the past week to an estimated 151.9c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$90.38
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.7168
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
151.9
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 5.1% over the past week to US$90.38 per barrel, while the Australian dollar strengthened 1.5% against the US dollar, trimming the local cost of imported fuel. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning lower. Prices likely to ease over the next 4 weeks Crude oil has fallen 17% and the australian dollar has strengthened — the cost of importing petrol is down 13%. That typically flows through to the pump within 3–4 weeks. Don't over-fill right now — cheaper prices are likely coming.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale decreases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Saturday 18 April 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
| City | U91 avg | U91 cheap |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 204.9c | 188.5c |
| Melbourne | 207.8c | 184.9c |
| Brisbane | 206.7c | 191.5c |
| Adelaide | 199.5c | 188.7c |
| Perth | 197.6c | 183.7c |
| Canberra | 208.3c | 197.9c |
| Hobart | 203.1c | 189.9c |
| Darwin | 211.8c | 199.5c |
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Saturday 18 April 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowPrices are about 14¢/L below last week and sitting at the weekly low. Today is good value — even if the cycle hasn't fully bottomed.
Melbourne
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeImport costs have dropped 14% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 4.2%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.
Brisbane
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowPrices are about 14¢/L below last week and sitting at the weekly low. Today is good value — even if the cycle hasn't fully bottomed.
Perth
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowPrices are about 19¢/L below last week and sitting at the weekly low. Today is good value — even if the cycle hasn't fully bottomed.
Adelaide
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowPrices are about 20¢/L below last week and sitting at the weekly low. Today is good value — even if the cycle hasn't fully bottomed.
Canberra
Falling — heading toward troughYou have timeImport costs have dropped 14% in 2 weeks. the AUD has strengthened 4.2%. Prices should ease as lower wholesale costs flow through to the pump. Fill up when you need to.
Hobart
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowPrices are about 18¢/L below last week and sitting at the weekly low. Today is good value — even if the cycle hasn't fully bottomed.
Darwin
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowPrices are about 13¢/L below last week and sitting at the weekly low. Today is good value — even if the cycle hasn't fully bottomed.
Looking ahead
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart, Darwin are on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
If your tank can wait, the next predicted price low is approaching in Melbourne (around 0 days away from the next trough), Canberra (around 0 days away from the next trough). Conversely, drivers in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin are at or near the cycle low and the model is calling fill-up now before prices reset upward.
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased downward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.