Market Update
Friday 3 April 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Friday 3 April 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 226.8c/L, down 28.6c on last week. Diesel averages 305.0c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 288.2c/L. Wholesale import costs lifted 1.1% over the past week to an estimated 174.1c/L — the input that flows through to pump prices over the following one to two weeks.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$109.03
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6891
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
174.1
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude climbed 2.0% over the past week to US$109.03 per barrel, while the Australian dollar held flat 0.3% against the US dollar. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning higher. Prices remain elevated — global supply costs are higher than usual Petrol import costs are currently around 34% above where they were six weeks ago, driven by global supply disruptions. While costs have stabilised in the short term, the price floor has risen — expect to pay more than historical averages for the foreseeable future. Short-term cycle swings still apply, but each peak and trough will be higher than what was normal before the disruption.
Historically, moves in import parity take about 10-14 days to show up at the bowser. With wholesale increases this week, you can expect the pressure to filter through to pump prices over the next two weeks — earlier in metros that follow a tight price cycle, later in regional markets where retailers smooth changes out.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Friday 3 April 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Friday 3 April 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toNo clear high or low right now — prices are in the middle of the cycle. The next price dip is around 9 days away. Fill up when you need to. Global supply costs are currently 34% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Melbourne
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toThe cycle is overdue for a low point. The last low was 30 days ago. Fill up when you need to. No clear direction yet — watch for the dip. Global supply costs are currently 34% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Brisbane
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toNo clear high or low right now — prices are in the middle of the cycle. The next price dip is around 18 days away. Fill up when you need to. Global supply costs are currently 34% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Perth
Falling — heading toward troughFill up nowPrices have dropped significantly — down ~20¢/L from recent levels. This is a good time to fill up before prices stabilise or start rising again.
Canberra
Cycle position unclearFill when you need toThe cycle is overdue for a low point. The last low was 14 days ago. Fill up when you need to. No clear direction yet — watch for the dip. Global supply costs are currently 34% above their level six weeks ago. Prices may stay elevated longer than the usual cycle would suggest.
Looking ahead
Perth is on the falling leg, which is when local prices typically reach their lowest before the cycle resets.
Across our coverage, the cycle call leans toward fill-up now in Perth — the model's read is that prices are at or near the local trough and likely to climb in coming days.
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased upward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.