Market Update
Sunday 29 March 2026
Unleaded 91 and diesel · Brent crude, AUD/USD, capital pump prices, and city-by-city 4-week outlook
What moved this week
As of Sunday 29 March 2026, the national average for Unleaded 91 across Australia's capital cities sits at 257.3c/L, up 10.5c on last week. Diesel averages 303.8c/L nationally, with the cheapest reported bowser at 279.9c/L. Wholesale import costs held around 173.8c/L, suggesting little fresh pressure on pump prices from the global side.
Wholesale market signals
Brent Crude
US$108.04
per barrel
Singapore MOGAS tracks Brent with ~1 week lag
AUD/USD
0.6851
exchange rate
A lower AUD raises the cost of imported fuel
Import Parity
173.8
cents per litre
Estimated wholesale cost before excise and GST
What this means for pump prices
Brent crude eased 3.7% over the past week to US$108.04 per barrel, while the Australian dollar weakened 3.2% against the US dollar, lifting the local cost of imported fuel. These are the two inputs that, together with refining and shipping margins, determine the wholesale cost of fuel landed at Australian terminals.
The four-week outlook is leaning higher. Prices likely higher over the next 4 weeks The cost of importing petrol is up 6% — crude oil has risen 8% recently and the Australian dollar has weakened against the USD. Both factors increase what retailers pay before they set prices at the pump. Even at the next price cycle low, expect to pay more than last month's low. If your tank allows, fill up a little more than usual now.
Import parity hasn't moved much this week, so any pump price changes you see at the bowser will be driven mainly by the local discounting cycle rather than the global signal.
Capital city pump prices
Average and cheapest reported pump prices in each capital on Sunday 29 March 2026, with the change vs 7 and 30 days prior.
Averages computed from stations within a metro radius of each capital. 7d and 30d deltas apply to the U91 average.
City-by-city cycle outlook
Where each capital sat in its local discounting cycle on Sunday 29 March 2026, and what the model was telling drivers to do.
Sydney
Cycle position unclearFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 2.2%. import costs have risen 6% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Melbourne
Cycle position unclearFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 2.2%. import costs have risen 6% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Brisbane
Cycle position unclearFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 2.2%. import costs have risen 6% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Perth
Cycle position unclearFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 2.2%. import costs have risen 6% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Canberra
Cycle position unclearFill up nowEven though the price cycle suggests waiting, the AUD has weakened 2.2%. import costs have risen 6% in two weeks. The next cycle low will likely be higher than recent lows. Filling up now locks in a better price than waiting.
Looking ahead
Across our coverage, the cycle call leans toward fill-up now in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Canberra — the model's read is that prices are at or near the local trough and likely to climb in coming days.
Layered over the local cycle, the macro signal is biased upward for the next four weeks based on the wholesale cost trajectory. That doesn't always change the day-to-day call, but it does shift where each city's cycle is likely to land relative to recent history.
How this update is generated
Each day at 6:00am AEST, PetrolPulse fetches the latest Brent crude spot price and AUD/USD exchange rate, then combines them using the standard Singapore MOPS import parity formula to estimate the wholesale cost of fuel delivered to Australian terminals.
Capital city averages are computed from live station-level data within a metro radius of each capital — not state-wide aggregates — so regional outliers don't skew the headline number. Comparisons against 7 and 30 days prior show whether the city was trending up or down on the day, separate from the wholesale signal.
The city-by-city cycle outlook combines local cycle-position analysis with the forward-looking macro signals above. When import parity moves significantly relative to current retail prices and the recent margin, the directional call updates automatically.